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Cake day: August 20th, 2023

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  • It’s probably too late to change candidates to a new one, so they’re stuck with Vance. Their best hope would be to parachute in someone charismatic and with appeal to a plausible “silent majority” of conservative-leaning voters à la Reagan, or at least someone who can keep his skinsuit on properly when in public. Given the way that from 2016, if not the Tea Party era, onwards, Republicans have either been primaried out of politics for being “RINOs” or else drunk deeply of the Kool-Aid and embraced the spiral of radicalism to keep up, there aren’t many plausible candidates who haven’t abased themselves.

    So the Republicans would be thoroughly screwed, at least if they didn’t have the Electoral College, the Supreme Court, gerrymandering, voter suppression, the backing of billionaires and all the dirty tricks Putin and Musk between them can muster. As it stands, they may have to fight dirtier than they planned, with uncertain results.






  • What will happen: Harris will put in a fine performance, coolly parrying his attacks and laying out a coherent vision for her presidential term. The press will latch onto one thing—perhaps some ambiguity around tax policy or her correcting herself after starting to say the wrong word —and blow it up into existential doubts about the very basis of her campaign. Meanwhile, Trump will ramble semicoherently, spouting disjointed assertions about protecting the border or the children or whatever, segueing into stories about golfing with famous people or immigrants abducting and transing American children, calls for mass executions of bad guys and word salad with no discernible meaning. The media will helpfully gloss over that, pointing out that he “forcefully advocated American interests” and is “in tune with public concerns about security/the economy”. They’ll award it to him, judging that he had regained the initiative and Harris is now on the run, and the 99.9% of the public who didn’t watch the debate themselves will believe that.







  • Both of these services appear to be dependent on BlueSky. I.e., if BlueSky ceased existing, or cut them off from its API, they’d die. In that way, they’re not that different from “Log in with Facebook” or similar.

    One could theoretically make one’s own independent AT Protocol network, but not in a way that interoperates with BlueSky as a peer. You’re either a subsidiary part of its network or you don’t exist as far as it’s concerned, which is a much poorer value proposition than ActivityPub and related protocols.