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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Risk Management. I have some very limited experience with using R, but not really any Python experience. There was a good set of tools (Excel add-ons) from ProbabilityManagement.org that gave a lot of flexibility in the models that you could build (e.g. not restricting a user to building financial risk models or schedule risk models like a lot of other risk management apps). I’m not really trying to complain about not being able to find this on Linux, and run an air-gapped Windows machine to hang on to this capability.

    I also run silly things like modeling expected dollars needed to complete a Funko collection.


  • I recognize it may be a pretty niche issue, but i still haven’t found a Linux app that i can build Monte Carlo simulation models with, though I think some of the developers of these types of apps have made MacOS ports. The ones that I’ve historically used are Excel add-ons, but i haven’t found anything similar yet for Libre Office, or stand alone app.




  • I work in risk management, but don’t really have a strong understanding of LLM mechanics. “Confidence” is something that i quantify in my work, but it has different terms that are associated with it. In modeling outcomes, I may say that we have 60% confidence in achieving our budget objectives, while others would express the same result by saying our chances of achieving our budget objective are 60%. Again, I’m not sure if this is what the LLM is doing, but if it is producing a modeled prediction with a CDF of possible outcomes, then representing its result with 100% confindence means that the LLM didn’t model any other possible outcomes other than the answer it is providing, which does seem troubling.






  • One of the details that I spotted was that the images in the article show the FLIR logo, which is a type of equipment that one would use to view methane plumes, and was used to dramatic effect during the Aliso Canyon gas storage field leaks. That may not be a convincing detail on its own, but one that I thought suggested some credibility.