Robert F Kennedy and Chase Oliver voters are peeling off votes from Trump not Harris.

If you look at the count of the RFK/ Oliver/ Libertarian voters they more or less cancel out the Green and socialist candidate/party voters

Lmao yes famous things leftists ask for like:

1. Stating your difference from Biden would be to have a republican in your cabinet.
2. Campaigning with Liz Cheney.
3. Enacting the rights border policies.
4. Walking back a commitment to ban fracking.
5. Walking back support for Medicare 4 All
6. Walking back support for the green new deal.
7. Supplying and funding the genocide leftists and Arab voters explicitly wanted stopped.

They can’t even blame third party voters this time around because from the current tallies it wouldn’t have made a difference.

They didn’t activate what should be their base enough and instead tried to court neocons and these mythical moderate republicans that would abandon trump in swaths for a righter wing democrat (hint: they will always prefer the actual republican).

If the democratic leadership takes this result as anything but an indictment of their attempt to abandon popular left policies to become the Republicans of 20 years ago they are hopeless. I’m not holding my breath though.

Oh I agree, but that’s was a whole other can of worms I wasn’t trying to get into at the moment since I’ve got a busy and long work day that’s still not over unfortunately lol

I didn’t ignore what you said. My retort to

No. If 5% of my voting base sits out over a single issue, I’m going to lose my interest in trying to triangulate their support and move in another direction to identify a more persuadable bloc of voters. That goes more if the abandonment is repetitive, and if the issues constantly change, or if the issue is something I can’t bend on for electoral reasons. If one bloc of voters is easier to please than another, then I’m moving in their direction, even if it’s rightward. Unfortunately it’s winner-take-all, and you’re either in power or you’re not. There are no half-wins.

Was that if it’s a clear issue like the genocide Israel is carrying out that has a lot of strong opposition to the Democrats current position it really isn’t all that hard to triangulate what the cause is.

It’s been known it’s THE issue the democrats are losing support for given the coverage of the non committed movement. As for how tough it is to It’s literally not support a genocide that’s how you please that group. It’s literally following our current laws to not supply and fund a country committing a genocide.

the importance of Gaza

Literally from your own link “though some questioned whether it would push them not to vote at all.” In a thread where people are complaining about a small amount of people voting third party could lose the election for democrats in swing states I guess it is an important issue if it’s driving even some people in swing states to not vote.

Also when the non committed movement has more support in some states than the margin of victory in 2020 I would say it’s pretty important.

the “ease” of withdrawing support

So genocide is alright as long as they’re an enemy of Iran, that’s your argument? Israel is literally the one escalating the situation in the area, pulling their support or at least threatening to do so until the genocide is stopped would actually deescalate the situation in the region.

how much Democrats have moved rightward

I don’t disagree they’ve moved left on most social issues when looking at at that long of a time span that’s in the article you linked. I’m talking this election cycle Kamala has clearly shifted right from the policies she ran on in 2016.

how many centrist Republicans vote for Democrats.

In 1 election, that’s the sample size. That’s not a trend and it’s against Trump who is an historically awful candidate for moderates to try and stomach. They’ll be back voting R once he’s gone so it’s not a good long term strategy when you’re alienating what should be your base to the point their considering not voting or voting third party.

Moreover, you seem to be valuing the strongly-held opinions of voters in non-swing states (what you’re calling “deep blue states” or “areas that effectively don’t matter”) more highly than the maybe-less-strongly held opinions of voters in swing states. If 5% of Democratic voters in California want sushi, and 5% of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania want steak, I’m picking steak and telling the California voters to take a hike. Their opinion doesn’t even register on my radar thanks to the electoral consequences of pissing off the Pennsylvanians who wanted steak.

You completely misunderstood what my example was trying to get across. I’m not valuing non swing state voters opinions more than swing state voters.

I understand that the swing state voters are going to have an outsized role in what each party pushes. Tactically I would be saying the voters in swing states especially should be witholding their vote unless the democrats stop supporting Israel’s genocide since it would be more leverage but obviously trump getting elected isn’t a great alternative which is why I didn’t mention that since that’s a risk.

What I was saying is that given that non swing states you can safely vote third party to show your displeasure in the genocide we’re supporting and possibly shed light that it’s got a large amount of importance to voters.

Edit: formatting since I’m on mobile and at work.

Not funding and supplying a genocide seems to be a pretty clear and easy issue to change especially when 60%+ of democrats are in favor of it. We’re already violating our own laws by continuing to do so.

The democrats are already moving to the right even with the left continuing to vote for them. They think they can win over some centrists republicans (even though they can’t in a meaningful number) by adopting right wing policies while not losing the left because at the moment they know votes are guaranteed because “republicans worse”.

Having voters in areas that effectively don’t matter this cycle show there displeasure in the genocide we’re enabling is the least we can do to counter it.

You’re looking at things through there lens of 1 election cycle.

If a third party that’s against the genocide Israel is carrying out gets say 5% of voters in deep blue or deep red states would that not be a signal to the democrats that they should change their stance before the next election?

It definitely isn’t the only time I care about third parties. Continued direct action in the community is the most important way to affect change. The election is just a useful event for publicity and gaining support for groups.

There’s 0% chance my comment is going to convince enough people this election cycle that it effects a non swing states election. It’s about slowly building support for groups.

But at the same time why vote for a party that won’t win?

Building support for change has to start somewhere, while they won’t win this election the more support they get the more visibility socialism gets as well as showing that people aren’t willing to vote for genocide. At the very least it shows the amount of people unhappy the democrats aren’t taking a harder stance on Israel.

As for the PSL specifically, they’re the best option on the ballot in my state. Thank you for the link though I’ll take a deeper look when I have a chance.

If enough people are voting third party that it’s a threat then maybe the other parties should take notice and change to support the popular policies and win back support.

Also we can do more than 1 thing at a time. We should be pushing things like ranked choice voting while also showing our displeasure with the current parties where it makes sense to do so.

Giving support to third parties gives them and the issues they’re promoting more visibility to the general public.

If you live outside the ~5 swing states that decide the election you can go ahead and ignore stuff like this saying you can’t vote third party.

Shoutout PSL

I’ve heard this story a few times and supposedly it happened over a weekend but yeah either the guy was a very good card counter and played a ton or recklessly bet it on roulette and got insanely lucky if this is true.

What does “less forgiving” even mean here, better rhetoric? Words and shaming haven’t and won’t stop Israel’s genocide.

Unless she puts an actual stop to the funding and weapons or helps enforce the ICJ/UN rulings on Israel there isn’t going to be a material change to the genocide.

Again, all you’re doing is saying ‘she supported an ally way back in the past before it started doing warcrimes’

Israel has been doing it for decades, the illegal occupation has been happening since 1967. They’ve been “mowing the lawn” every couple years and arbitrarily detaining Palestinians the entire time. The only thing that’s recent is the speed at which they’re killing the Palestinians.

My issue is that they’re considered an ally of the US at all, that policy stance was terrible the entire time, just because some people only started paying attention recently doesn’t mean it’s a recent development.

Edit:

Amnesty international had a report way back in ‘09 about the use of white phosphorus and human shields by the Israelis.

Unless you have recent examples that hard counter any of the below any reasonable person should see isn’t going to suddenly change. When the uncommitted movement had over 100k votes in a Michigan (a swing state) that’s just shooting yourself in the foot if you’re trying to beat trump.

She has clear a history of pushing against any international organization trying to hold Israel accountable on any level. Unless she comes out and clearly distances herself from Biden’s actions why should we think she’ll be any different?

• Harris set a tone for her posture on Israel as a senator when she co-sponsored legislation in 2017 condemning former President Barack Obama’s decision to abstain from vetoing a UN Security Council Resolution critical of Israel. The resolution, which was adopted in December 2016, stated that “the establishment by Israel of settlements in the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem, has no legal validity and constitutes a flagrant violation under international law and a major obstacle to the achievement of the two-State solution and a just, lasting and comprehensive peace.”

• During the 2020 presidential race, the New York Times asked Harris if she thought Israel meets international standards of human rights. “Overall, yes,” she replied.

• In Harris’s first call with Netanyahu after becoming vice president, on March 3, 2021, she told the Israeli leader that the U.S. was opposed to the International Criminal Court investigating alleged Israeli war crimes against the Palestinians. Harris and Netanyahu “noted their respective governments’ opposition to the International Criminal Court’s attempts to exercise its jurisdiction over Israeli personnel,” according to a White House readout of the call.

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She’s a part of the administration that hasn’t stopped weapon shipments to the country committing the genocide. It doesn’t matter if she has given some meaningless lines on the tragedy going on if there’s been next to nothing done to stop it.

She with Biden came out and said the US will not impose conditions on support for Israel. The country committing the genocide. How is that not blatant support?

Between that, her ties to AIPAC I don’t see how anyone can say she’ll be a meaningful improvement. Sorry to tell you “inconvenient truths that don’t fall within your little narrative”

She isn’t remotely progressive. There’s a long list of very problematic stuff she did while AG which the other commentator covered in part but there’s also:

• Her office stopped cooperating with victims of Catholic Church Child abuse.

-She’s a blatant supporter of Israel’s Genocide

You may have done so already but you may want to see if the PSL is on the ballot where you are.

Didn’t really bury it because I don’t agree with that analysis and it’s not part of the poll.

If they’re polling similar to him with 39%-71% of the people not knowing who the candidate is that means their floor is where Biden is.