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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: August 25th, 2023

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  • I haven’t used dual shock so I can’t speak to that, but as far as Xbox 1/S controllers, there is no 1st party support - literally all the drivers are from some non-MS affiliated GitHub page. 360 controllers required the xpad driver as well - that isn’t 1st party support. Yes they work out of the box with steam if you are using a wired connection, but that’s because it’s going through steaminput (not 1st party either), and making the controls of the submarine dependent on being launched through steam is even more absurd. Gen 2 series 1/S controllers didn’t work via Bluetooth for a long time after they (silently) launched on most LTS Linux OSs due to the kernel missing requisite BLE functionality





  • These people aren’t placing bets on who they want to win, they are placing bets where the house odds differ from the actual expected outcome. The people throwing big money on this are doing it based on actual data (amalgamating polls, etc), not just gut feelings.

    If I think Kamala has a 45% chance of winning the election and the bookie is giving her implied odds of 40%, I should take that bet, because even though I think she will lose, I stand to make a 12.5% ROI on my bet. I can then hedge that bet on another bookmaker giving a 48% implied odds, and if enough people do this the bookmakers odds will converge on 44%


  • but either way I don’t think this “market” knew more than the mainstream media was telling us.

    No, but it is a culmination of all the available public information (and some private information you won’t find elsewhere) in a single metric. If you read a single article you would assume there is either a 100% Biden drops out or a 0% chance - if you read every single news article in existence, aggregated all social media buzz, polls, etc, into a statistical likelihood, you would likely come out with a number that closely matches the odds.

    Biden was only going to drop out once, so you can’t say how closely these odds matched the actual likelihood on this specific measure, but if you analyze hundreds of predictive markets like this, the implied odds pretty strongly correlate with the actual binomial outcomes