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Cake day: July 30th, 2023

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  • 35 Senate seats are up for election this year, Fetterman is not one of them. Currently the Senate is 53 Republican, 45 Democratic, 2 Independent.

    I’d LOVE to see BOTH the House and Senate flip, but if you go race by race, most of these are super safe either D or R. These are state wide elections so gerrymandering does not apply.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_elections

    Interim elections:

    Florida - Ashley Moody Safe Republican (filling Marco Rubio’s seat)
    Ohio - Jon Husted Safe Republican (filling JD Vance’s seat)

    General elections:

    Alabama - Tommy Tuberville Safe Republican
    Alaska - Dan Sullivan Safe Republican
    Arkansas - Tom Cotton Safe Republican
    Idaho - Jim Risch Safe Republican
    Iowa - Joni Ernst Safe Republican
    Kansas - Roger Marshall Safe Republican
    Kentucky - Mitch McConnell Safe Republican
    Louisiana - Bill Cassidy Safe Republican
    Mississippi - Cindy Hyde-Smith Safe Republican
    Montana - Steve Daines Safe Republican
    Nebraska - Pete Ricketts Safe Republican
    North Carolina - Thom Tillis Safe Republican
    Oklahoma - Alan S. Armstrong Safe Republican
    South Carolina - Lindsey Graham Safe Republican
    South Dakota - Mike Rounds Safe Republican
    Tennesseee - Bill Hagerty Safe Republican
    Texas - John Cornyn Safe Republican
    West Virginia - Shelley Moore Capito Safe Republican
    Wyoming - Cynthia Lummis Safe Republican

    Colorado - Dan Hickenlooper Safe Democratic
    Delaware - Chris Coons Safe Democratic
    Illinois - Dick Durbin Safe Democratic
    Massachusetts - Ed Markey Safe Democratic
    Minnesota - Tina Smith Safe Democratic
    New Hampshire - Jeanne Shaheen Safe Democratic
    New Jersey - Corey Booker Safe Democratic
    New Mexico - Ben Ray Luján Safe Democratic
    Oregon - Jeff Merkley Safe Democratic
    Rhode Island - Jack Reed Safe Democratic
    Virginia - Mark Warner Safe Democratic

    Georgia - Jon Ossoff - Likely Flip D->R
    Maine - Susan Collins - Likely Flip R->D

    Michigan - Gary Peters Democratic Toss Up

    I’d love to see No Kings get out the vote and flip Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas.

    That would flip the Senate from 53R:45D:2I to 51D:2I:47R. But realistically, looking at the voting history in those states? Aint never gonna happen.

    Georgia and Maine flip 1:1, and the best case scenario is the Democrats hold Michigan and nothing changes: 53:45:2. Worst case? 54:44:2 and still nothing changes.