Oh no, you!

  • 0 Posts
  • 5 Comments
Joined 10 days ago
cake
Cake day: November 3rd, 2024

help-circle




  • BuT tHeY wErE WrOnG iN 2016!1

    Yes, and no. They estimated a slightly higher chance for a Hillary win over a Donald win, but they were well within the margin of polling error, and they have been for every election. Plus people have a tendency of over-valuing a “51% chance to win”.

    While this is good news, it could mean nothing.

    EDIT: 538 explained it better than I ever could:
    "Statistically, too, there is no meaningful difference between a 50-in-100 chance and a 49-in-100 chance. Small changes in the available polling data or settings of our model could easily change a 50-in-100 edge to 51-in-100 or 49-in-100. That’s all to say that our overall characterization of the race is more important than the precise probability — or which candidate is technically ahead.”