So, disclaimer that polls are shit and should always be taken with a truckload of salt, BUT…
It’s interesting that half-ish of the people in the “neither” camp seem to have jumped to Biden/Harris, and half-ish of the “neither” camp has stayed exactly where they were. Trump’s support is totally frozen, and trust in Dems has increased every month since February except right after the debate debacle. We certainly shouldn’t draw sweeping conclusions from one data point, but this does lend support to the argument that Biden was singularly weighing the ticket down amid otherwise pretty solid fundamentals.
Most of the increase for Harris is probably Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who were dissatisfied with Biden at the top of the ticket. But they probably would have voted for Biden regardless. This move minimizes the risk that these voters wouldn’t show up to vote. Very good sign for Democrats.
There probably just isn’t much more than 41-42 percent to get for Republicans at this point.
So, disclaimer that polls are shit and should always be taken with a truckload of salt, BUT…
It’s interesting that half-ish of the people in the “neither” camp seem to have jumped to Biden/Harris, and half-ish of the “neither” camp has stayed exactly where they were. Trump’s support is totally frozen, and trust in Dems has increased every month since February except right after the debate debacle. We certainly shouldn’t draw sweeping conclusions from one data point, but this does lend support to the argument that Biden was singularly weighing the ticket down amid otherwise pretty solid fundamentals.
Most of the increase for Harris is probably Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who were dissatisfied with Biden at the top of the ticket. But they probably would have voted for Biden regardless. This move minimizes the risk that these voters wouldn’t show up to vote. Very good sign for Democrats.
There probably just isn’t much more than 41-42 percent to get for Republicans at this point.