Toss-up Presidential Election in Swing States
Isn’t that kind of the definition of a swing state?
Swing states are just close enough to move. States like Florida aren’t a toss-up they are generally red, unless something pretty extreme happens.
New Quinnipiac poll has JD Vance’s popularity right between “stepping on dog crap” (+2) and “long flight, middle seat, screaming baby to either side” (-3)
The sample size for Arizona is n=720 likely voters, with a credibility interval of +/-3.6%. The sample size for Georgia and Michigan is n=800 per state, with a credibility interval for each state of +/-3.4%. The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=950, with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. The sample size for Nevada is n=1,168, with a credibility interval of +/-2.8%. The sample size for North Carolina is n=775, with a credibility interval of ±3.5%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=850, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%.
@jordanlund@lemmy.world what do you make of this latest Emerson data?
I just re-ran the numbers today based on recent polling:
As usual, national polls, yadda yadda.
Let’s see the state breakdown now:
Arizona: Toss Up. Harris +1, Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/Nevada: Toss Up. Harris +2, Tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/New Mexico: Harris +8/+11
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/new-mexico/Texas: Trump +3/+5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/texas/Georgia: Harris +1/+2
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/Florida: Trump +3/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/North Carolina: Trump +1/+2/+4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/florida/Virginia: Harris +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/Pennsylvania: Toss Up, 2 tied polls, Trump +1/+4/+5
Michigan: Harris +2, tie
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/Wisconsin: Harris +4/+5, Trump +1
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/Minnesota: Harris +5/+7/+10
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/So… changes from last time…
Nevada moves from Harris to toss up. Georgia has moved more to Harris. Michigan is still Harris but getting closer.
Plotted on the map, Harris only needs 1 of the three toss up states to win. Trump needs ALL THREE to hit 271.
Emerson College Polling - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)
Information for Emerson College Polling:
MBFC: Least Biased - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: High - United States of America
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