Rothenberg starts by noting that, if you go by the polls, it’s going to be a close election in November. And the polls might very well be right. However, there are indicators that Kamala Harris is driving up enthusiasm among some key demographics, most obviously younger voters and voters of color. Pollster models of the 2024 electorate are based, more or less, on what the 2020 electorate looked like. That means that if the 2024 electorate is substantively different, the polls could be off, perhaps by a lot. The conclusion is that you shouldn’t be too terribly surprised if, in the end, Harris wins fairly comfortably. Rothenberg is not saying that WILL happen, merely that it’s within the realm of possibility.
I have no doubt the polls are off. I also have no doubt the election for President will be painfully close. Whether that’s in swing states, republiQan “State Elections Cheating Board”s, fake electors, or MAGA terrorism.
There is zero benefit to thinking it will be a walk-off home run for Harris at this time. I’ll be more than happy to revisit it after she is inaugurated.
Of course no campaign will get a country mile from this concept. The point is more for an intellectual discussion. If it did happen, we can test if there will be less problems from a wider win.
Rothenberg starts by noting that, if you go by the polls, it’s going to be a close election in November. And the polls might very well be right. However, there are indicators that Kamala Harris is driving up enthusiasm among some key demographics, most obviously younger voters and voters of color. Pollster models of the 2024 electorate are based, more or less, on what the 2020 electorate looked like. That means that if the 2024 electorate is substantively different, the polls could be off, perhaps by a lot. The conclusion is that you shouldn’t be too terribly surprised if, in the end, Harris wins fairly comfortably. Rothenberg is not saying that WILL happen, merely that it’s within the realm of possibility.
I have no doubt the polls are off. I also have no doubt the election for President will be painfully close. Whether that’s in swing states, republiQan “State Elections Cheating Board”s, fake electors, or MAGA terrorism.
There is zero benefit to thinking it will be a walk-off home run for Harris at this time. I’ll be more than happy to revisit it after she is inaugurated.
Of course no campaign will get a country mile from this concept. The point is more for an intellectual discussion. If it did happen, we can test if there will be less problems from a wider win.