“He’s doing a good job,” Trump saidabout the Israeli leader. “Biden is trying to hold him back, just so you understand, Biden is more superior to the VP. He’s trying to hold him back, and he probably should be doing the opposite, actually. I’m glad that Netanyahu decided to do what he had to do, but it’s moving along pretty good.”
If he can keep steady poll numbers after an insurrection, my guess is that this won’t impact him at all.
Polling doesn’t capture turnout changes. This is the kind of thing that’s largest effect, if materialized, would be boosting dem turnout
Depends on the poll. State by state polls absolutely sample likely voters (aka, people who plan to turn out). Moreover, they use past polling and election data to inflate or deflate turnout likelihood if a consistent gaps exists between what a cohort historically says and what a cohort historically does.
They don’t easily capture changes to turnout between election cycles is my point. They rely on assumptions of what turnout will look like to weight their polling
The best proxy is voter enthusiasm, but its not perfect
Yeah, but most elections these days generally fall within the margins of polls. The historical trend data is generally doing a decent job of predicting future behavior.
IMHO, the bigger issue is that some races are so tight that they can’t be reliably predicted. The winner is buried within the margin of error.